China's peaceful rise
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China's peaceful rise (中国和平崛起) is a foreign policy doctrine mentioned increasingly by the People's Republic of China in the early 21st century. The term was first used in a speech given by the former Vice Principal of the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party, Zheng Bijian, in late 2003 during the Boao Forum for Asia. It was then reiterated by Chinese premier Wen Jiabao in an ASEAN meeting as well as his visit to the United States. It appears to be one of the first initiatives by the fourth generation of Chinese leadership, headed by Wen and Hu Jintao.
In Zheng's speech he pointed out that in the past, a rise of a new power often resulted in the drastic change of global political structure, and even war. He believed that this was because these powers "chose the road of aggression and expansion, which will ultimately fail." He said that in today's new world, China should make use of the peaceful environment to continue to develop herself, and in turn help to maintain this peaceful environment.
The content of the policy is also widely seen to reflect a more cosmopolitan and sophisticated outlook on the part of China's foreign policy establishment after the leadership transition in 2003.
The term is used primarily to reassure the nations of East Asia and the United States that China's rise in military and economic prominence will not be a threat to peace and stability, and that other nations will benefit from China's rise. Explicit in the doctrine, is the notion that China's economic and military development is not a zero-sum game and that China represents less of an economic competitor than economic opportunities.
The doctrine emphasizes the importance of soft power and is based in part on the premise that good relations with its neighbors will enhance rather than diminish Chinese comprehensive national power. Part of this doctrine is that China will have an economic policy different from that of Japan during the 1980s and will avoid neo-mercantilism and protectionism, and that nations outside of China will be able to materially benefit from China's economic rise through trade and investment. As such, China's participation in the World Trade Organization is part of this doctrine.
In diplomacy, the doctrine emphasizes multilateral cooperation such through institutions such as the six power talks concerning North Korea's nuclear program and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It also calls for less assertiveness in border disputes such as the Spratly Islands, Diaoyutai/Senkaku, and the Aksai Chin. China's active diplomacy over North Korea, has been widely regarded as a break from previous Chinese foreign policy which has been widely seen as passive and opportunistic.
In addition, this doctrine seeks to avoid confrontation with the United States and one of the motivations behind the doctrine was the conclusion in the late-1990s that the United States was not a declining power and that for the first part of the 21st century, that no alliance of great powers could constrain U.S. actions. The other motivation behind the doctrine is the realization that trade with the United States has been and will be essential for China's economic growth. Thus, China seeks to both prevent the United States from becoming an enemy, and also make it impossible for the United States to follow a strategy of containment vis-a-vis China. One consequence of this doctrine is that the PRC has remained neutral over U.S. foreign policy initiatives such as its invasion of Iraq.
This incentive has also interacted with U.S. actions in light of the September 11 terrorist attacks. In contrast with the situation in the late-1990s, voices such as the blue team, which considers China rise to be the most serious security threat to the United States, have been considerably muted. In addition, as the United States has been heavily involved in Iraq, stability in East Asia, especially in the areas of North Korea and Taiwan has become attractive to the United States. Furthermore, some have commented that many of the nations of East Asia find the U.S. exclusive focus on terrorism to be annoying, and thus welcome the broader view that China has presented concerning foreign relations.
Many of the ideas of China's peaceful rise come from the new security concept, which was formulated by Chinese thinktanks in the mid-1990s.
Taiwan is explicitly excluded from the doctrine as the PRC considers Taiwan a domestic affair. At the same time, as part of its aim of avoiding confrontation with the United States, the PRC has attempted to portray itself as the advocate of peace and stability in the Taiwan straits and the ROC government under Chen Shui-bian as dangerously destablizing the region, and in contrast to practice in the 1990s, has attempted to gain the support of the United States in restricting what it percieves as Chen's efforts to further Taiwan independence.