Projection of force

In military and diplomatic calculations, projection of force is the capacity, either implied, or demonstrated in practice, to exert control over distant theatres through military action. Changes in a country's capacity to project force may have immediate consequences for diplomacy and international trade agreements. Gunboat diplomacy is the crudest expression of this factor in international relations.

Taking the Russo-Japanese War of 1904 - 1905 as a case study: The Japanese demolition of Russia's Pacific fleet demonstrated Russia's inability to project force in the East. This immediately diminished Russia's diplomatic sway in that region. At the same time, Russia's western armies became less credible, as mobilization exposed organizational flaws and threw the western armies into chaos. This led analysts in Europe, such as Germany's Chief of Staff Alfred von Schlieffen, to conclude that Russia would prove inept at projecting force in Europe, thus demoting Russia in European diplomatic relations. For a final consequence, Japan recognized the significance for its political independence of denying other Powers the capacity to project force into its vicinity. The Japanese Imperial Navy was massively developed on Sato Tetsutaro's advice to deny America the projection of force capability it then held over the Japanese mainland. This altered the balance of diplomatic power between the two countries in Japan's favor.

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