Backwardation

Backwardation, sometimes incorrectly referred to as "backwardization," is a condition on futures markets in which contracts closer to expiration trade at higher prices. Backwardation is an abnormal condition in a futures market, and is a condition suggestive of supply insufficiencies in the corresponding physical (spot) market. More generally, the term is sometimes applied to prices other than futures prices, when analogous price patterns arise. For example, if it costs more to lease silver for 30 days than for 60 days, it might be said that the silver lease rates are "in backwardation."

In Treatise on Money (1930, chapter 29), economist John Maynard Keynes argued that in commodity markets, backwardation is not an abnormal market situation, but rather arises naturally as "normal backwardation" from the fact that producers of commodities are more prone to hedge their price risk than respective consumers. An academic dispute on the subject ensued that prevails until today.de:Backwardation

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